The financial market's projection for official inflation in 2026 has risen from 5.01% to 5.22%, according tothe Focus Bulletinreleased this Tuesday (13) bythe Central Bank. This was the fourth consecutive increase in the estimate for the Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA).
At the same time, the financial market maintained the forecast of economic growth at 1.85% and reduced the expectation for thebasic interest rate (Selic)at the end of the next year, from 13.50% to 13.25% per year.
The inflation projection for 2027 remained at 4.30%. In 2028, the estimate receded from 3.80% to 3.79%.
GDP and Selic
The forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained at 1.85% for 2026. For 2027, the expectation continued at 1.40%. In 2028, the estimate went from 1.81% to 1.83%.
The projection for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 has fallen from 13.50% to 13.25% per year. Currently, the basic interest rate is 13.75%. For 2027, the estimate remains at 12% per year. In 2028, it remains at 10.5%.
The market also reduced its estimate for the dollar at the end of 2026, from R$ 5.20 to R$ 5.15. For 2027, it fell from R$ 5.28 to R$ 5.26. In 2028, it remained at R$ 5.30.
Copom
The announcement comes in the context of the Central Bank pointing to a gradual slowdown in economic activity and the maintenance of inflationary pressures.
InthelatestMonetary Policy Committee (Copom)meeting, published on September 22, the committee assessed that the effects of high interest rates on credit and demand have been accumulating gradually, but noted that inflation expectations remain above the target.
Two days later, following the publication of the Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the central bank reduced the benchmark interest rate from 2% to 1.8%.Projected growth for the economy in 2026, reiterating the assessment that inflation is expected to exceed the target in the next year, despite the slowdown observed in price indices in recent months.
Meta
The continuous inflation target set by the National Monetary Council is 3%, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points above or below.Thus, the ceiling of the target corresponds to 4.5%. The projection of 5.22% for the IPCA in 2026 remains above this limit.