The progressive parties lost 309,600 votes to theLegislative Assembly of Rio Grande do Sulbetween 2022 and 2026. The combined vote share of PT, PCdoB, PV, Psol, Rede, PSB and PDT fell from 2.1 million to 1.79 million. This group's share increased from 34.18% to 29.39% of valid votes, while its representation decreased from 19 to 17 deputies.
In the same period, PL gained 675,200 votes and increased from five to 12 seats, strengthening the far right within the right-wing. PSD also grew, while PSDB and other parties lost ground. The comparison considers both votes for candidates and party votes in the two elections.
The Legislative Assembly has 55 deputies. The reduction in the progressive bench increases the need to seek votes outside this field to block projects fromelected governor, Luciano Zucco (PL)The parties in Zucco's coalition won 27 seats, and if they vote together, they will need additional support to approve supplementary and six laws to amend the state constitution.
Changes in candidacies and progressive benches
The Brazil Unity coalition, formed by PT, PCdoB, and PV, lost 193,700 votes and went from 12 to 10 seats. PT alone lost 184,300 votes and fell from 11 to 9 elected representatives. The election also saw changes in names: Valdeci Oliveira and Laura Sito, both from PT, ran for the Chamber of Deputies, while Luiz Fernando Mainardi (PT) assumed the mayorship of Bagé. The three had combined for 164,100 votes for state in 2022.
Bruna Rodrigues, elected by PCdoB in 2022 with 51,865 votes, ran this year for PSB and received 17,315 and was not re-elected. PSB had no representation in the Assembly. In 2022, the party had elected Elton Weber, who ran for PSD this year and was a substitute. PCdoB maintained one seat, now with Humberto Matos, elected with 40,122 votes.
The Psol expanded its bench with the election of Karen Santos, in addition to the re-election of Luciana Genro and Matheus Gomes. The Psol–Rede federation gained 36,400 votes, going from 288,839 to 325,270. The growth did not compensate for the losses of other progressive parties. PSB lost 93,200 votes and PDT, 59,100, although the PDT maintained four deputies.
Extreme right gains strength within the right
PL went from 519,833 to 1,195,077 votes, a growth of 129.9%. Its participation increased from 8.44% to 19.57% of valid votes. This advance occurred while other right-wing parties receded: Republicans lost 96,800 votes and went from five to four deputies. PP and União Brasil, combined, lost 120,800 votes and went from ten to eight seats.
Inan analysis on the advance of the extreme right in the state ofBrasil de Fato, Dr. Jorge Branco, a political scientist and researcher at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), assesses that the result reflects a "reactionary narrative" in a state historically marked by the presence of both the right and the left, following a national and global trend.
He relates this advance to the influence of meritocracy and individualism discourses on small entrepreneurs and rural landowners. According to the researcher, part of these sectors were previously linked to the progressive field, but were captured by "these neoliberal ideas" and began to approach the extreme right.
White warns about which issues this parliamentary force should favor. He opposes an agenda of development and innovation with measures such as "selling assets, increasing repression of petty crime and street crime", as well as the removal of rights from civil servants. In his assessment, the risk is to continue with the backward-looking policies adopted in the Sartori and Eduardo Leite governments.
PSD gains ground and "centrist" bloc may expand support for the government
The PSD gained 376,500 votes and expanded its representation from one to five seats. Meanwhile, the PSDB–Cidadania federation lost 424,800 votes and fell from five to one seats. Part of thisThe reorganization involves changes within the party.: The PSD received deputies such as Nadine (Delegada), Neri (The Postman, formerly in PSDB), and Aloísio Classmann, elected by União Brasil.
MDB, PSD and PSDB total 11 deputies in the new composition, against 12 elected in 2022. Branco assesses that the support of these parliamentarians, whom he calls the "center," could expand the base of the next government beyond the coalition parties. "It seems he will have a comfortable majority," he says.
In this scenario, Branco predicts that the opposition will initially have an agenda focused on "defending the rights of public servants, the state health network, and the state education network." At the same time, he argues that this field should seek dialogue with universities, technology companies, and industrial sectors to put development and innovation on the state agenda and counter the project of "returning to the past" that attributes to Zucco.
Lula also loses votes in RS
The loss of Progressive votes also appears inthe presidential raceBetween 2022 and 2026, this group of candidates received 14.7% fewer votes for state deputy, while Lula (PT) lost 18.2% of his votes in the first round in RS.
On the other hand, the parties that make up Zucco's coalition increased votes for the Assembly by 24.8%, considering the same acronyms in both elections. In the presidential race, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) received 10.1% more votes than Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.