Organized crime is changing the way violence manifests in Brazil. This is one of the findings from the diagnosis brought by data from the 20th Brazilian Public Security Annual Report, which shows a decrease in homicides, while the country faces an increase in other forms of violence, such as femicide, violence against children and adolescents, digital crimes, andPolice lethalityHomicide rates, which remain at a high level, showed 40,775 intentional deaths in 2025, a rate of 19.1 per 100,000 inhabitants, a 31% decrease compared to 2012.
As the election draws near, public safety has once again become a central topic of debate, as it is identified by the majority of Brazilians as one of their greatest concerns.BdF InterviewDavid Marques, a sociologist and program manager at the Brazilian Forum on Public Security, argues that the discussion on public safety needs to incorporate investigation, intelligence, prevention, and policies capable ofTo confront the different dimensions of violenceIn the country.
Marques noted that the Yearbook reveals a "process of transformation in"Structure of ViolenceIt affects Brazilian society." "We have been following the trend of reduced intentional violent deaths since at least 2018. The peak of the rate of intentional violent deaths was in 2017. Since then, we have seen a near-continuous decline in these rates and numbers, quite significant.
The expert drew attention to the explosive growth of fraud, which has increased by over 430% since 2018, driven by "industrial gears" of digital fraud that military police, focused on overt patrolling, cannot reach.
Marques criticized the political choice of many Brazilian states for directly confronting andPolice lethalityAs a response to organized crime, arguing that this strategy has not been effective against factions such as the First Command of the Capital (PCC) and the Red Command (CV).
A significant portion of these intentional homicides is linked to the way organized criminal dynamics have intensified. In our country, this is often characterized by so-called criminal factions," he highlights, assessing that this dynamic ultimately creates a gang war scenario, intertwined with drug trafficking and higher orders that often originate from within the prison system.
For him, the excessive focus on confrontation, heavily centered around large police operations, has proven to be misguided. Evidence of this can be seen in data from states like Bahia and Amapá, which have invested in police forces as a means to combat crime.
If we look at Brazil's homicide rates and police lethality rates, the top two spots are held by the same states. Amapá has the highest rate of intentional violent deaths and the highest police lethality rate. Bahia, in second place, has high rates in both categories. These are states that are trying to react to organized crime, adding fuel to the fire.
"The medication that is being offered is not managing to contribute to the patient's health and may be helping to worsen the situation," he summarizes.
Looking towards the 2026 elections, Marques argues that the debate on public safety must move beyond shallow discourse and supposed simple solutions to complex problems. "We've already stated that there's a shift in criminal activity related to property crimes towards the digital environment. Regarding these crimes, the military police cannot reach this type of criminality. It requires criminal investigation, which is the task of civil police, who have much less visibility than military police. Therefore, this line of strengthening security through criminal investigation, improving intelligence, due to its lack of visibility, ends up being overlooked in favor of this overt policing, which will provide more images."
The researcher also emphasized that organized crime today infiltrates various economic sectors, such as fuels and fintechs, requiring governance that goes beyond police action, as demonstrated by theOperation Carbon"We have an organized crime that has not stopped growing, it has not stopped developing. And it's a quite concerning process, in fact. The infiltration of organized crime into areas where it was not previously present to this extent affects institutions, affects markets," he emphasizes.
According to David Marques, society should demand more solid proposals from candidates in this year's elections, which are not simply to increase police violence. "It's time for us to have a more comprehensive project for the area and not just keep hitting the same note of leaving it up to the police to solve organized crime issues," he criticizes.
To listen and watch
TheBdF InterviewIt airs from Monday to Friday at 4 p.m., onBrazil's Fact Radio98.9 FM in Greater São Paulo.