The threat of expanding the scope of a potential conflict between Iran and the United States to include the region’s digital infrastructure introduces new dimensions to the security equations in the Persian Gulf.
These infrastructures, which may appear unrelated to the military sphere, actually underpin significant portions of the economies, commerce, communications, and technological activities of nations in the region. Submarine internet cables, data centers, and facilities associated with artificial intelligence have now become strategic assets for these countries; assets whose damage could trigger consequences extending well beyond national borders.
In an interview with Press TV, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Mohsen Rezaei discussed the possibility that regional communication and technology infrastructure could be targeted in the event of a renewed conflict with the United States. These remarks, viewed alongside the extensive investments made by the Persian Gulf Arab states in the digital economy and artificial intelligence, draw attention to the vulnerability of infrastructure that relies on high-speed connectivity, a stable and sustainable power supply, and expansive data transmission networks to function.
Submarine Cables: The Hidden Arteries of the Internet
A significant portion of international internet communications takes place via submarine fiber-optic cables. These cables are laid on the seabed and ocean floors, transmitting data over long distances using light pulses. Messaging, video calls, data exchange between companies, cloud services, and many international financial transactions all rely, directly or indirectly, on the capacity of these networks.
The significance of this infrastructure lies in the fact that a large portion of global digital communication relies on pathways that often remain hidden from users. Contrary to popular belief, the Internet is not merely a collection of wireless or satellite networks; the major portion of the global data transmission depends on terrestrial networks and fiber-optic cables. Submarine cables, in particular, play a fundamental role in intercontinental connectivity due to their high capacity and ability to transmit massive volumes of data.
The Persian Gulf and its associated communication routes are also part of this extensive network. The region’s geographical position, linking Asia, Europe, and other global economic hubs—lends particular significance to its data transmission routes. In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz is crucial to security and economic calculations, given its strategic role in maritime transport and its proximity to regional infrastructure. However, the precise routing of cables and the degree of dependency vary from country to country. Therefore, it should not be assumed that all communication networks in the region rely on a single, unified path.
What are the consequences of damage to the cables?
Damage to a submarine cable does not necessarily mean a complete loss of internet access within a country or globally. Communication networks typically consist of multiple paths; if alternative capacity is available, some traffic can be rerouted. However, such rerouting often comes at a cost. If multiple paths are damaged simultaneously, or if the capacity of alternative routes is insufficient, there is an increased likelihood of slower speeds, higher latency, and disruptions to certain services.
The consequences depend on the location of the damage, the number of affected cables, the volume of traffic, and the capacity of alternative networks. Telecommunications companies, internet service providers (ISPs), financial institutions, and businesses that rely on the rapid exchange of information may face increased costs or a decline in service quality. Given that digital communications play a vital role in economic activities, such a disruption can escalate from a mere technical issue into a source of economic loss.
Repairing submarine cables is neither a quick nor a simple process. Locating the damage, deploying specialized vessels, and carrying out repairs depend on various technical and environmental conditions. Consequently, in the event of extensive damage or damage occurring simultaneously across multiple routes, restoring the network to its normal state can be time-consuming. The very characteristic has made the protection of such infrastructure a critical issue for communications security.
Data Centers and Artificial Intelligence (AI): A Critical Point for the Digital Economy
The significance of potential threats becomes even greater when data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure are taken into account. In recent years, the Persian Gulf Arab states, most notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have made extensive investments in the development of their digital economies, cloud services, and artificial intelligence. These investments are aimed at diversifying their economies, reducing reliance on traditional energy revenues, and transforming the region into a global technology hub.
Data centers serve as hubs for storing and processing vast amounts of information, supporting services ranging from website and financial system hosting to complex artificial intelligence computations. The stable operation of these centers relies on several fundamental factors: reliable power, cooling systems, high-speed connectivity, and specialized equipment. A serious disruption in any of these areas can impair a data center's performance or, in extreme cases, bring its operations to a complete halt.
With regards to the artificial intelligence, the issue extends beyond the mere existence of powerful computers. Training and running advanced models require substantial computing power, as well as energy and data transmission infrastructure. Furthermore, the connectivity between data centers, cloud networks, and users constitutes an integral part of the service delivery chain. Consequently, any disruption to communication infrastructure or energy supply can drive up operational costs for technology companies and lead to delays in their development plans.
Of course, any disruption to internet cables should not be interpreted as a cessation of operations for artificial intelligence centers. Data centers may utilize diverse communication routes, redundant systems, and emergency power sources. The vulnerability of any given facility depends on its technical design, geographical distribution, level of protection, and capacity to shift processing workloads to other locations. Nevertheless, the interdependence of these infrastructures demonstrates that digital security is no longer merely a technical matter; rather, it is inextricably linked to the economic resilience and national security of nations.
Regional Consequences of a Costly Scenario
Should the conflict extend to digital infrastructure, its potential impact could spread to sectors such as financial services, e-commerce, transportation, corporate communications, and public services. Companies that rely on cloud computing or cross-border communications may face operational disruptions and increased costs. This situation is of particular significance for countries striving to attract foreign investment and enhance their standing within the digital economy.
Ultimately, concerns regarding the potential targeting of the region’s communication and technology infrastructure underscore that rivalry and tension in the Persian Gulf extend well beyond military capabilities or energy exports. Subsea cables, data centers, and artificial intelligence infrastructure have emerged as strategic regional assets, and any security crisis could jeopardize their functionality. For nations investing billions of dollars in their digital future, the critical question is whether this technological expansion is accompanied by a commensurate strategy for infrastructure protection, the establishment of redundant pathways, and the enhancement of resilience against crises.
MNA
