Hello, through winding paths, and as the right wanted, corruption has become the central theme of the election campaign.
Fla-Flu.With a lukewarm election, the two main protagonists, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, have become practically side characters in a scenario where the internal fracture of the STF (Supreme Court) has more influence on the elections than the candidates' government programs.Three decisions made by the STF in 36 hoursText: Involving André Mendonça, Alexandre de Moraes, and Flávio Dino, a power struggle was temporarily resolved by Edson Fachin, who entered the game after a week of resting on his laurels. Despite being celebrated, the actions of the President of the STF have not yet shown their true potential, as he is known for his moderate profile and aversion to risks.With a history of ambiguous stancesFachin seems the ideal character to calm spirits, but not to push forward the reforms the STF needs to regain its institutional role. On the next Tuesday (9/15), when the Supreme Court's plenary session begins to examine the validity of the PF report regarding Alexandre de Moraes, we will know if the truce will be lasting or not. The only certainty so far is that the STF has become the main topic of the electoral campaign. The manifestations on September 7th from the bolsonarism, for example,They turned into acts in support of Mendonça and attacks on Moraes.The text: "In the event, the presence of Flávio Bolsonaro was just a detail. Until"The adventurer Augusto CuryPlaying the role of Father Kelmon more effectively, he decided to ride the Bolsonaro wave in favor of Mendonça. It's true that Flávio's campaign is worried that the backlash could hit him and his allies, especially with theNew PF offensive in the Dark Horse caseIn the inquiry led by Flávio Dino, it opens the box of some of the thousands of scandals in which the family is involved. But, until then,The Bolsonaro strategy is to capture the votes of the disaffected.With the political situation and the mess at the Supreme Court, hammering home the point that they warned the STF was out of control and, in the process, trying to paint Jair Bolsonaro as a victim of Alexandre de Moraes' tyranny. And if Flávio still can't win the election, it's likely that, in the Senate,The right and Bolsonaroism are strengthening.Renewing the nightmare of having the worst Congress in Brazil's history, so far.
Will it work for the PT?Without the possibility of closing the Pandora's box opened by the STF, thepetist strategyis to keep hitting Flávio with the Dark Horse episode, denouncing that Mendonça's actions are selective, and strengthening Edson Fachin's leadership at the Supreme Court. At the same time, Lula advocates breaking the privacy of everyone involved in the Master case, signaling that he is not in trouble like his opponent and that he does not intend to shield any STF minister, a proposal thatwas eventually taken up by Edson Fachin himself.By the way, the strategy must succeed because the first Quaest poll after the Supreme Court crisis indicateda statistical tie between Lula and Flávio in the second round.In a sign that the Bolsonarist candidate has regained the ground lost during the height of the Dark Horse scandal. Worse still, the recovery may be a sign of the "gaping maw" of the opposition gaining ground, closing the gap and poised to soon surpass the front-runner. The issue isn't so much Flávio's growth, but the shrinking of Lula's voting intentions, dragged down by the government's worsening evaluation.Mouth of the CrocodileWhen the opponent is gaining ground, reducing the distance and with the trend to soon surpass the top-placed candidate. The problem isn't so much Flávio's growth, but the shrinking of Lula's voting intentions, dragged down by the government's worsening evaluation.Dragged down by the government's worsening evaluation.With each round of the Quaest, the president loses a point, while disapproval reaches 50%. Another indicator is the difficulty in raising funds for the campaign, with Flávio Bolsonaro leading with R$ 44 million declared, and Lula with R$ 35 million. In this case, the biggest problem may not be the STF, but the economy.Flávio Bolsonaro in the lead with R$ 44 million declared.And Lula with R$ 35 million. In this case, the biggest problem may not be the STF, but the economy.Thomas Traumann assesses.There is a disconnect between the president's optimistic view of his own government and the population's perspective, with only 31% of voters considering the government excellent or good. Additionally, Lula would be more isolated in his third term compared to his previous governments, which has caused problems with his political maneuvering, including his distance from business leaders. The PT campaign tries to show thatthe worker's life has improved since the times of Bolsonaro.However, even though the GDP growth forecast has increased and the inflation forecast has decreased, and thegovernment controls the price of fuels,thestagnation of the service sector for the second month in a rowis a bad sign for the Planalto. In reality, the situation of those in debt has not improved, with income drained by credit, high interest rates, and bets.
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*Point is written by Lauro Allan Almeida Duvoisin and Miguel Enrique Stédile.
**This is an opinion piece and may not necessarily reflect the editorial stance ofBrazil of Fact.