On Tuesday, October 15th, the Real Time Big Data institute released another round of voting intention polls focusing on Pernambuco, twelve days after the last survey on September 3rd. The scenario of a tie between Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) and former mayor João Campos (PSB) persists, with the opponent now ahead of the incumbent (44% vs 43%). The other candidates make up 5% of the total. Real Time Big Data is the only institute whose polls have never shown Lyra ahead in the race.
Compared to the survey released on September 3rd, when Lyra and Campos were tied at 43% each, the former mayor of Recife oscillated one percentage point, reaching 44% (+1), while the governor maintained her 43%. The two have been tied for two months, oscillating between 42% and 44% in the fourth consecutive poll by Real Time. Renan Hallais (Mission) remained at 4%, Ivan Moraes (Psol) oscillated negatively and scored 1% (-1), while Camila Falcão (UP), Guilherme Fonseca (PSTU), Victor Assis (PCO), and Jeremias do Banco (Dem) together make up 1%. There are also 3% of undecided voters and 4% who declare their vote as white or null.
Lyra and Campos are also tied in the rejection index, with a slight advantage for Campos within the margin of error. The governor has a 40% rejection rate, while the former capital mayor is rejected by 38% of voters. 1,600 voters were interviewed between September 10th and 14th. The margin of error is ±2 percentage points, and the level of reliability in the survey is 95%. The Real Time Big Data survey was commissioned by Record and registered with the Electoral Court (TSE) under code PE-07953/2026.