By Nathália Francisco
Known for its thermal waters, coffee grown in volcanic soils, and landscapes, Poços de Caldas is part of the Volcanic Plateau, where the coexistence of water, agriculture, and tourism are central to the local identity and economy. Recently, this territory has been presented as one of the world's major frontiers for the exploration of rare earth minerals, attracting interests that place it in the midst of power struggles for control of strategic minerals and technologies.
Poços de Caldas, in South Minas, at the center of the world. Amid international negotiations and electoral disputes, it is appropriate to ask: who is deciding the future of this territory, and how can the polls guide the exploration of rare earth minerals in Brazil?
Brazil has the second largest reserve of rare earth minerals in the world, estimated at 21 million tons, second only to China. This concentrates fundamental stages of the production chain: in 2024, it accounted for 60% of the extraction and 91% of the refining of rare earth minerals used in high-performance magnets, used in electric cars, wind turbines, and military technologies.
This combination places Brazil at the center of the race for alternatives to Chinese supply. However, national commercial production is still small, concentrated in the Serra Verde operations in Minaçu, Goiás, acquired by the American USA Rare Earth in September 2026. The competition for Brazilian minerals is already materializing in the corporate control of production.
In the Volcanic Plateau, Caldeira and Colossus, owned by Australian companies Meteoric and Viridis, stand out, both still without commercial extraction, but with prior licenses granted. The size of the deposits, the concentrations of rare earths, and their occurrence in ionic adsorption clays, with the potential for less costly processing, help explain the intense business interest in the region.
The projects are advancing despite popular resistance and questions about cumulative socio-environmental impacts in a territory that already lives with environmental and radioactive legacies from the Brazilian Nuclear Industries. In Colossus, the criticisms include pits, piles of waste, and a chemical mineral treatment unit near the South Zone of Poços de Caldas. The protection of water sources, quality of life, and the safety of residents and schools are at stake.
Other projects further intensify this territorial pressure: Morro do Ferro, by Power Minerals; Poços Rare Earth Project, by Enova; and Caldas Project, by Axel REE, all Australian companies. The Volcanic Plateau allows us to understand how geopolitical interests and national choices translate into conflicts over ecosystems, economic activities, and living conditions.
The international coordination is explicit.
In October 2025, amidst the trade war with the United States and Chinese restrictions on the export of rare earths, Donald Trump and the Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, signed a billion-dollar agreement on critical minerals, associating the security of supply with the production of defense technologies. In this arrangement, the Australian company Lynas Rare Earths stands out, which maintains contracts with the United States Department of Defense for processing facilities in Texas.
In early October 2026, Lynas announced an agreement to acquire Meteoric, responsible for the Caldeira Project, directly connecting the volcanic plateau to this network of interests. The company processes part of the material in Malaysia, where its operations are the subject of accusations and protests related to radioactive waste. Its association with the U.S. Department of Defense has also provoked reactions from local entities, which denounce the use of processed rare earths for the American military industry.
The announcement occurred about two weeks after Lula sanctioned the National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals (Law 15.506/2026). The law establishes value addition and control mechanisms for international operations, but also financial incentives and priority in environmental licensing. Important instruments depend on subsequent regulation: the dispute over their application remains open. The presidential election is therefore decisive in defining which interests will prevail and which limits will be imposed on mining expansion.
Decisive election
Flávio Bolsonaro assumes the consensus discourse of adding value to national production. However, his position reveals subservience to U.S. interests. At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a conservative conference held in March 2026, he presented Brazilian rare earths as a solution to reduce U.S. dependence on China, linking them to the maintenance of U.S. technological and military superiority.
It is concerning that a presidential candidate presents our resources as a tool to sustain the power of a foreign power. Associated with the proposal to accelerate licensing, this position points to the subordination of Brazilian territories to the priorities of Washington.
Protecting water sources and clarifying radiological risks requires time, transparency, and public oversight capacity, in tension with the pressure to accelerate projects. Flávio's election would represent a setback in socio-environmental and national and popular sovereignty agendas in mining.
Lula's election does not guarantee the full protection of peoples and territories, nor does it automatically represent the mineral policy we need. The legislation sanctioned by his government can also promote predatory expansion. However, electing Lula offers better conditions to compete for this policy through social organization and public pressure.
This choice requires effective popular participation, respect for traditional peoples, and social and environmental limits to mining. Given the announced subordination to US interests, re-electing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a necessity, accompanied by the requirement that territories participate in decisions about their future. The future of Brazil and the Poços de Caldas volcanic plateau is also in the urns – and will continue to be contested after them.
Nathália Franciscois a PhD candidate at the Núcleo de Pós-Graduação em Arquitetura e Urbanismo of the School of Architecture at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (NPGAU/EA-UFMG) and a researcher at the RMBH Nucleus of the Observatory of Metropolises.
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Read other articles about cities and urban development in the columnObservatory of Metropolisesin Brasil de Fato.
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This is an opinion article, the author's view does not necessarily reflect the editorial line of the newspaper.