The congressman Marcel van Hattem (Novo-RS), a Senate candidate in Rio Grande do Sul this year, has been repeating a strange phrase in his campaign: "For every R$100 sent to Brasília, only R$19 return to Rio Grande do Sul." Curious about the source, I looked for where the candidate might have found this information. I came across an article called "Tax Distribution in Brazil: System Penalizes South and Southeast, Favors Less Developed States" from RealTime1 (supposedly with data from Confaz, which does not even publish this).
In this survey, all federal revenue attributed to Rio Grande do Sul is added and compared only to the transfers from the Union budget to the state and municipalities (funds like FPE, FPM, SUS, Fundeb, agreements). According to the ranking, poor states in the North/Northeast appear to receive more than 100% of what they raise (Roraima 295%, Maranhão 203%); states in the South/Southeast appear to receive much less than they raise (SP 10%, PR 16%, RS 19%, SC 30%).
But the "return" through transfers to the state government and municipalities is only a fraction of this calculation. Let's do the math correctly.
Between 2000 and 2021, the Federal Revenue published how much the agency collected in each of the federation states. In the last bulletin, 4.71% of the national total came from Rio Grande do Sul (R$88.4 billion). If we do the calculation using the portal and the congressman's criteria, for 2021, we would have a "return" in transfers to Rio Grande do Sul state and municipalities of R$20.75 billion, which would be R$23.50 returned for every R$100 sent.
As we no longer have this collection data by state, let's simulate the total collection of the Federal Revenue in 2025, using the constant proportion of 2021, when 4.71% of everything collected came from Rio Grande do Sul. In 2025, the total collected in the country was R$2,886.9 billion. So, R$135.8 billion of this would come from Rio Grande do Sul.
And what returned?
In 2025, R$32.4 billion was transferred by the Union to Rio Grande do Sul state and municipalities. These are constitutional transfers and agreements from the Union: State Participation Fund (FPE), Municipal Participation Fund (FPM), FUNDEB, PNAE (school meals), PNATE (school transport), PDDE (direct money to schools), salary-education quota share, CIDE-Fuels, CFEM (mining royalties), oil and natural gas royalties, and a long etc. But this is not the only money that "returns."
We also have federal government expenditures executed directly in the region, which totaled R$14.75 billion. Just the nine federal universities and institutes in Rio Grande do Sul totaled R$9.23 billion in 2025: UFRGS R$2.57 billion; UFSM, R$1.96 billion; UFPEL, R$1.22 billion, FURG R$851 million; IFRS, R$718 million; IFSul, R$683 million; Unipampa, R$525 million; IF Farroupilha, R$481 million; and UFCSPA, R$220 million. The Clinical Hospital of Porto Alegre alone has a current budget of R$2.21 billion.
Additionally, we also have the payment of social benefits to citizens, totaling R$ 9.9 billion in 2025. This includes R$4.87 billion in BPC for 251,500 Gauchos, R$4.59 billion in New Bolsa Familia for 700,900 families, and the rest divided between Foot-in-the-Door, Reconstruction Aid, and Defended Insurance.
Lastly, we have INSS benefits paid to retired and pensioner Gauchos, the largest expense, amounting to R$ 68.1 billion in 2025. RS represents 5.2% of the population and 4.7% of federal revenue, but it accounts for 8.05% of INSS spending, almost double its population share and over 70% above its revenue share. Today, INSS spends R$ 25 billion more than it collects in direct contribution in the state of RS.
This is the picture of aging: RS has a 29% larger share of seniors (65+) than the national average (14.08% compared to 10.92%). Meanwhile, Roraima, the state with the largest surplus between what it collects and spends on INSS benefits, collects 150% more than it spends on these benefits because it has a much younger population, with only 5% seniors.
This doesn't include other federal government benefits, such as funds from Funrigs, a state fund created to finance RS's reconstruction after the 2024 flood, but which also has a significant federal origin in its largest share. Of the R$10.08 billion available to the fund by July 2026, R$9.34 billion comes from deferring RS's debt with the Union - that is, the debt the state failed to pay to the National Treasury and redirected towards reconstruction.
Another example is BNDES. In 2025, RS was the second state to receive the most resources from the development bank: R$ 28 billion. Between 2023 and 2025, the total amount disbursed by the state-owned enterprise was R$ 67 billion.
How much money actually returns to RS?
Adding only what is measurable and comparable to revenue, such as transfers to the state and municipalities (R$32.4 billion), direct Union execution on the territory (R$14.75 billion), social benefits to citizens (R$ 9.9 billion), and INSS benefits paid to retired and pensioner Gauchos (R$ 68.1 billion), we reach R$125.1 billion returning to RS in 2025.
Against the estimated federal revenue of R$ 135.8 billion in the state, this amounts to R$92.10 return for every R$100 paid. Almost five times more than the R$19 suggested by van Hattem. RS is indeed a "net contributor": it sends more to Brasilia than it receives back, but the difference is R$10.7 billion, not the approximately R$110 billion suggested by "R$19 for every R$100".
The far-right uses half-truths as a tactic, literally in this case. Thus, it blames others for its own problems, finding an easy solution to a complex issue.
*Eric Gil Dantas, an economist at Ibeps (Brazilian Institute of Political and Social Studies), is a doctor in Political Science from UFPR..
**This is an opinion piece and may not necessarily reflect the editorial line of Brasil do Fato.Brazil Fact.